Why China should support NUG and its PDF force?
It would be very strange to ask China to support the National Unity Government. China will say that it won’t interfere in other countries internal affairs. However, it is impossible for China to stay away from Burma. For example, China will need Burma for its Belt and Road initiative. Without any stability in Burma, it will be impossible for China to build any new roads or any infrastructure projects.
Here I would like to write as someone who is close to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s inner circle. I am not a NLD member but close to some of them.The NUG is very pragmatic and they know that the UK and US are not going to do intervention in Burma. They may support them morally but they are too far away from Burma.
First of all, China may have doubts about whether Daw Aung San Suu Kyi supports this arm struggle against the junta. She tried non violent means and it failed. She is saying now that she never opposes the people and what they are doing. What she is effectively saying that she supports what NUG and PDF are doing. That will clear the first hurdle for China.
Here I will argue why China should support the NUG militarily. At the moment, the PDF are very strong in central Burma and they will continue to grow with or without the support of China or US. People have made up their mind and they will fight the junta until the end. The junta is using the lethal force against the uprising and its intention is to instil fear. Instead any place that the military junta attacks will become part of the PDF. That is the real mentality in central Burma. They are inflicting heavy casualties on the military. If China supplies with artillery and modern weapons, they can capture bigger cities within months. That will give China some leverage to protect its own interest in Burma. That is a no brainer to support the winning side which is NUG.
I know that China might want a negotiated settlement. However, the Junta and Min Aung Hlaing is not in compromising mood. The only language he understands is the force. If the PDF starts to hold some big cities,the calculus inside the army will change and they will remove him from power and starts a genuine negotiation with NUG led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.
On the other hand, China can support the junta but PDF forces will grow and much stronger than now in next few months. They may acquire some weapons from their sympathisers in West and by this time, it will be too late for China.
In summary, I do believe that China may have some intelligent information on the junta anyway and should know which side will win. It is a matter of time. People will win and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi now explicitly said that she supports NUG and PDF. It’s time for China to support Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and NUG and ultimately people of Burma.