When General Min Aung Hlaing staged the coup against the Daw Aung San Suu Kyi led NLD government, one of his reasons for the coup was that she was too close to China. After the coup, Burma was in quagmire. The ousted NLD law makers formed the National Unity Government (NUG) of Burma and were and still are supported by the people. No one dared to dream that the NUG will be so successful as it is now.
Here I would like to address some misconceptions from China about the NUG. Myanmar people prematurely hoped that the US will come and help them for the restoration of democracy in Burma. However, the US gave no support to the NUG and rather gave moral support and granting asylum to some. There is a law in the US to support pro-democracy movement in Burma, but no aid comes to the NUG. NUG has to rely on the funding of expatriates rather than the western aid. It is safe to say that there is no support for Burmese people from US and the West. The only support is sanctions against the military, but they will do sanctions anyway for Rohingya rather than for our democracy movement. They joined ICJ just to balance their support in the Middle East conflict and for their own internal politics.
At the same time, the junta let online gaming and fraud syndicates to operate freely inside Burma bordering China and also in Kayan State bordering Thailand. The junta lacks the capacity and the will to control their border guard force to eliminate these online fraud and games because the junta has to rely on them to control the border and territories. The security personnel who killed Chinese agents at the Crouching Tiger Villas are close to the junta and the Union Solidarity and Development Party.
This is the reason why the junta refused to arrest these people when China asked the junta to do so. You may be aware of that Ming Xuecheng was silenced by the junta because the army’s top brasses are closely involved in online gaming scams. He didn’t commit suicide but shot dead in custody. If China interrogates him, China will find out who is involved in the case. In some cases, Min Aung Hlaing personal staff officer, his family members and also executive members of USDP party benefit from the cut in profit of this multibillion-dollar scam business.
Now, the operation has started by the three Brotherhood Alliance and China will be surprised how quickly the army is defeated in the border areas. The initial intention might be just to control the border area and arrest the scammers but the speed of the defeat of junta troops might surprise all countries. Therefore, China has opened the pandora box whether China likes it or not. The junta’s army is under sieged, understaffed and demoralised. There is no way that the junta can regain or fight back because the moral is very low in the ranks and there are no troops to use on the ground.
China has two options here. Most people in Burma hate China because they think that China is supporting the junta. At the same time, some democrats are based in the west and their coverage might be against China. The junta is not in love with China either and China will realise that the junta won’t let China’s envoy meet Daw Aung San Suu Kyi even though the junta let Thai’s foreign ministers to meet her. The junta asked Russia to help them but Russia is tied in Ukraine. Here China can choose to ignore the NUG and maintain the status quo. If this is the case, the civil war will go on for a while and China won’t be able to invest or do business in Burma. The worst is that people from both sides including the junta can sabotage the China’s interest. China will see some demonstrations in Yangon which is organised by the junta, and they may sabotage China’s interest. The other option is for China to talk to the NUG at least secretly. China can approve the transfer of weapons to the forces under the command of NUG and finish the war quicker. By doing so, China can be on the right side of the history and Burmese people will be grateful to China. By doing so, the junta will be defeated within months and China can avoid another Syria or Libya at its doorstep. It will be a win win situation for both China and Burma.
The NUG is very pragmatic, and The NUG is not a pro-western government. Its President and Prime minister are inside Burma. They will be happy to open an office in China if China allows them to do so. So please talk to the NUG and support the NUG; it will be in China’s best interests.