The world is changing, however sometimes it goes too fast. No one expected Assad would have been deposed today. Trump is not a fan of China, and he displays his disdain often. He appointed Senator Marco Rubio as his secretary of state who is on China’s sanction list. He also nominated Peter Navaro as his top trade advisor who is also anti-Chinese and proudly boasts an America first policy. In addition, Trump has chosen Mike Waltz as his national security advisor who is also shares the same opinion. If that is not enough for China, his nominated Secretary of defence, Pete Hegseth has expressed an extremely critical attitude toward China. The last clear signal from Trump is his nomination of David Perdue as US Ambassador to China, who voiced concern about China’s role in global economics. Trade, and national security.
The NUG and Burmese people understand that China is our big neighbour, and we don’t want to fight with China like Ukraine did with Russia. However, China should and must have a proper dialogue with the NUG. China might be able to exert pressure on its proxy forces, but the Junta is losing and betting on the junta, Min Aung Hlaing will draw parallels to the situation in Syria. In addition, Min Aung Hlaing will soon be under arrest warrant from the ICC (International Criminal Court) and he will prove even more that he is not a good fit for China.
From my sources, I do understand that China is still trying to meet Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and Min Aung Hlaing is still refusing to let your envoy to meet her. Although I would like to recommend China for trying to negotiate peace in Burma and trying to meet Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, it may be too little and too late. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is the worst leader in modern Burma and his army is deteriorating in Myanmar.
Here, I would like to highlight that why China’s initiative for peace can’t work in Burma without the NUG. China might be able to exert the pressure on northeast of Burma, but the rest will be under the NUG, and they will keep on fighting. The question is whether China can stop it by the military force. It can be an option before Trump is elected but when Trump is in power this option will be in jeopardy. The NUG can engage with the new US administration and complain about China’s interference in Burma and its use of proxy forces within the conflict. That will prompt the new Trump administration to review and change its policy. The NUG will control the India-Burma border, and they can get more weapons supply from India if Thailand is still cosy to the junta.
China might think that they can manage without the NUG, but they shouldn’t forget that their gas pipelines are going through the NUG controlled area. China won’t get access to the sea without the support of the NUG.
Concluding, China’s policy maker should strive to make contact and sit down with the NUG foreign minister Daw Zin Mar Aung now and have a dialogue with her before Trump’s inauguration 20th January 2025. China can choose to talk to the president of the NUG or meet Daw Aung San Suu Kyi now and release the video file in doing so. If not, the National Unity Government of Myanmar will have no choice but to seek help and support from the new Trump administration and the people will hate China’s policy of propping up the junta It is now or never for China to talk to the NUG.
I love your opinion .